Market Drama
Featuring Zoe CEO & Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya, CFA
Watch Time: 4.6 min.
Welcome to this week’s Market Drama!
Stock Market Update:
- S&P 500: Up 5% for the week; down 6% YTD.
- Nasdaq: Up 6.7% for the week; down 10% YTD.
- MSCI EAFE (Intl. Developed Stocks): up 2.6% for the week; up 8.4% YTD.
- Key Themes:
- International stocks outperforming U.S. stocks this year.
- Market Rally Drivers:
- U.S. softened trade stance.
- President Trump confirmed no intention to fire Fed Chair Powell.
Economic Update:
- Soft Data: Sentiment indicators continue to weaken.
- Hard Data:
- Retail Sales (March): Hit record highs.
- Weekly spending: Signs of strength into April.
- Consumer Health:
- Debt service as a percentage of income remains low.
- Unemployment: Still historically low, though trending slightly up.
- Recession Risk:
- Risk exists, but no major imbalances like in 2008.
- Interest rates above 4%, unlike post-COVID zero rate environment.
- Market Correction Context:
- More than a 10% drop in under 30 days — rare but historically not always severe.
- Of 12 fast corrections since 1970, only COVID 2020 led to a full bear market.
Next Week:
- PCE Inflation data.
- 1st quarter GDP numbers.
- Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon.
Stay tuned for next week.
– Andres
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